Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-10 12:33

80%
Win Probability
+34.0
Projected Margin
CI: [+14.0 to +54.0]
1
Boom Potential
Jason Myers
4
Bust Risk
Rams D/ST (60%), Bucky Irving (51%), Jameson Williams (51%), Omarion Hampton (53%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett Higher projection (17.0 vs 14.0)
RB: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (15.0 vs 12.0)
WR: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Rashee Rice Higher projection (24.0 vs 22.0)
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Higher projection (10.0 vs 6.0)
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Marvin Harrison Jr. Higher projection (20.0 vs 13.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jordan Love DEN14.817.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving ATL15.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton KC11.712.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.824.0BOOMHIGH
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.222.0BOOMHIGH
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.514.0BOOMHIGH
D/ST Rams D/ST DET4.25.0BUSTMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.920.0BOOMMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 43% boom / 21% bust
DROP Luther Burden III 14% boom / 42% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 42% boom / 20% bust
ADD Garrett Wilson (WR) 36% boom / 35% bust
DROP Luther Burden III 14% boom / 42% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 presents a strong matchup advantage against Auto DraftKings with a projected +34 point margin (139.0 vs 95.0). Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters as consensus WR1 against a weak Indianapolis defense with Seattle favored by 13.5 points and a BOOM projection of 24 pts. Jordan Love gets the start over Jacoby Brissett with favorable Vegas implied points (23.0) despite the cold Denver weather. Thursday's game features Bucky Irving in a favorable spot against Atlanta's porous run defense, while Jameson Williams draws the FLEX role in the highest-scoring game of the week (55.5 total).

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 13.9 14.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 11.7 12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.8 24.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.2 22.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 13.9 20.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 14.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.2 5.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 10.8 4.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 10.3 6.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 14.8 17.0
Luther Burden III (bench) WR BE 8.1 3.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 12.8 13.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.2 8.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 10.1 9.0
0.0 Actual
139.0 LLM Total
136.0 ESPN Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Caleb Williams QB QB 16.1 16.5
Jonathan Taylor RB RB 16.7 14.2
Sean Tucker RB RB 2.9 6.4
A.J. Brown WR WR 16.8 13.3
Justin Jefferson WR WR 15.7 14.5
Dalton Schultz TE TE 8.9 10.0
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE 12.2 10.3
Jake Elliott K K 8.0 6.7
Commanders D/ST D/ST D/ST 3.2 3.3
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE 17.2 ---
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE 13.2 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 4.1 ---
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE 11.9 ---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench) RB BE 12.6 ---
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE 14.7 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
94.0 Opp LLM Total
95.2 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +45.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM, 49% MODERATE. XGB: 28% boom (agrees). DEN defense #12 vs QB. Cold weather (35F) but manageable. Favored by 2.5. Project MODERATE mode at 17 pts.

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CHI17.6-19.3+1.6
13DET15.7-25.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (anomaly - small sample). XGB: 38% bust. HOU defense #15 vs QB. Expert QB20. ARI losing big. Project MODERATE mode at 14 pts (not starting).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.3-19.0+3.7
13TB17.2-19.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.6 pts vs 10.2 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM, 65% MODERATE. XGB: 10% boom (lower than MC). ATL defense #11 vs RB (middling). Expert RB8. High-volume role. Project MODERATE mode at 15 pts.

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14NO16.4-16.1-0.3
13ARI11.8-16.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM. XGB: 44% bust. SF defense #30 vs RB (worst in league!). Expert RB53 (very low). Upside vs weak run D. Project MODERATE mode at 9 pts.

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.6-6.7-1.9
13JAX9.9-8.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM. XGB: 56% bust (concerning). Chargers role uncertain. Expert RB17. Indoor. Project MODERATE mode at 12 pts.

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14PHI12.1-14.7+2.6
13LV0.0-0.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.49)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST. XGB: 50% bust (agrees). Expert RB30. Cold weather (30F). Giants offense struggling. Project BUST mode at 4 pts.

Context: O/U: 47.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 41% MODERATE. XGB: 11% boom (lower). IND defense #22 vs WR (weak). SEA favored by 13.5. Indoor, high-volume target. Project BOOM mode at 24 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14ATL20.9-28.1+7.2
13MIN21.9-4.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 16% BOOM. XGB: 54% bust (agrees). CAR offense limited. Playing NO. Low game total 40.5. Project BUST mode at 8 pts.

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13LAR13.2-11.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. XGB: 38% boom (higher). HOU defense #11 vs WR (tough). ARI losing by 9.5. Heel injury concern. Project MODERATE mode at 13 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
13TB13.7-12.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (highest on roster), 26% MODERATE. XGB: 34% boom. LAC defense #20 vs WR. KC favored in divisional game. Primary target. Project BOOM mode at 22 pts.

Context: O/U: 41.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 33% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14HOU17.1-7.4-9.7
13DAL18.1-29.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 9.9 pts vs 8.5 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.18)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM. XGB: 48% bust (disagrees). BUT game total 55.5 (highest of week!). DET offense explosive. LAR defense #9 vs WR. Trust game environment. Project BOOM mode at 20 pts.

Context: O/U: 55.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14DAL13.8-17.3+3.5
13GB11.8-26.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • Trending down: 14.7 avg (last 3) vs 20.1 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 3.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 46% BUST, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% bust. CHI offense inconsistent. Cold weather (25F). Low game total 39.5. Project BUST mode at 3 pts.

Context: O/U: 39.5

MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.3-11.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 6.0 pts vs 5.0 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM. XGB: 30% bust. Playing CAR (weak defense). Expert TE12. Project MODERATE mode at 10 pts.

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14TB9.7-7.8-1.9
13MIA8.7-8.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.7 pts vs 8.3 projected (+17%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE. XGB: 60% bust (agrees). BUF weather: 28F, 20mph wind, snow. Bad conditions. Expert TE13. Project BUST mode at 6 pts.

Context: O/U: 50.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 16% BOOM. XGB: 54% bust (agrees). CAR offense limited. Playing NO. Low game total 40.5. Project BUST mode at 8 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13LAR13.2-11.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18%

Notes: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. XGB: 38% boom (higher). HOU defense #11 vs WR (tough). ARI losing by 9.5. Heel injury concern. Project MODERATE mode at 13 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
13TB13.7-12.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM. XGB: 44% bust. SF defense #30 vs RB (worst in league!). Expert RB53 (very low). Upside vs weak run D. Project MODERATE mode at 9 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14CLE8.6-6.7-1.9
13JAX9.9-8.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.99)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (QB) - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (anomaly - small sample). XGB: 38% bust. HOU defense #15 vs QB. Expert QB20. ARI losing big. Project MODERATE mode at 14 pts (not starting).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14LAR15.3-19.0+3.7
13TB17.2-19.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.6 pts vs 10.2 projected (+24%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE. XGB: 60% bust (agrees). BUF weather: 28F, 20mph wind, snow. Bad conditions. Expert TE13. Project BUST mode at 6 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13NYG11.2-11.3+0.1
12CIN11.4-24.5+13.1
11NYJ10.0-8.5-1.5
10TB10.7-1.9-8.8
9ATL9.1-9.1-0.0
8CLE9.4-7.7-1.7
7TEN9.3-7.3-2.0
6NO10.3-5.7-4.6
5BUF11.1-6.6-4.5
4CAR11.2-11.9+0.7
3PIT9.1-29.0+19.9
2MIA9.7-1.9-7.8
1LV8.8-10.6+1.8
  • Trending up: 11.9 avg (last 3) vs 6.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST. XGB: 50% bust (agrees). Expert RB30. Cold weather (30F). Giants offense struggling. Project BUST mode at 4 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Averaging 5.2 pts vs 4.6 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 8.0 avg (last 3) vs 11.7 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 3.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%

Notes: MC: 46% BUST, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% bust. CHI offense inconsistent. Cold weather (25F). Low game total 39.5. Project BUST mode at 3 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
14GB10.3-11.0+0.7
13PHI8.3-7.6-0.7
12PIT7.6-9.1+1.5
11MIN6.2-5.7-0.5
10NYG3.4-8.1+4.7
9CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
8BAL4.8-0.9-3.9
7NO4.9-3.1-1.8
6WSH4.8-9.1+4.3
4LV5.8-1.6-4.2
3DAL2.7-19.8+17.1
2DET2.7-1.5-1.2
1MIN3.2-0.7-2.5
  • Averaging 6.0 pts vs 5.0 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 9.2 avg (last 3) vs 4.6 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 19.8 pts in Week 3

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Dalton Schultz TE HOU 8.9 10.0 BOOM 31% 46% 23% MEDIUM
Commanders D/ST D/ST WSH 3.1 3.3 MODERATE 24% 38% 38% MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson WR MIN 15.7 14.5 MODERATE 22% 55% 23% MEDIUM
Jake Elliott K PHI 8.0 6.7 BUST 20% 25% 56% LOW
Sean Tucker RB TB 2.9 6.4 MODERATE 14% 48% 38% LOW
Caleb Williams QB CHI 16.1 16.5 MODERATE 11% 45% 44% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR TB 12.2 10.3 BUST 9% 36% 55% LOW
A.J. Brown WR PHI 16.8 13.3 BUST 9% 36% 55% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB IND 16.7 14.2 BUST 8% 35% 58% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 31% | Bust 23%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 25% | BUST: 50%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 22% | Bust 23%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 20% | Bust 56%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 38%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 44%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (6): Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%43%
Bust%21%
EV7.4
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (1-13) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
DROP Luther Burden III WR
Boom%14%
Bust%42%
EV6.2
BOOM: 10% (18-21) MODERATE: 44% (6-10) BUST: 46% (0-3)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%42%
Bust%20%
EV12.1
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)
ADD Garrett Wilson WR,
Boom%36%
Bust%35%
EV14.8
BUST: 38% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (10-22) BOOM: 23% (17-32)
DROP Luther Burden III WR
Boom%14%
Bust%42%
EV6.2
BOOM: 10% (18-21) MODERATE: 44% (6-10) BUST: 46% (0-3)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%34%
Bust%14%
EV8.3
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Isiah Pacheco RB,
Boom%32%
Bust%16%
EV8.0
BUST: 68% (1-9) MODERATE: 29% (7-19) BOOM: 3% (17-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.4 43% 21% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.1 42% 20% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 36% 35% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.3 34% 14% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 32% 16% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 29% 26% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 27% 54% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.5 21% 31% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 20% 22% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 20% 9% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.8 20% 35% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 19% 56% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 9.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 47% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 16% 58% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 20% 35%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 19% 56%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 15% 43%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.1 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 42% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 32% 16%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 29% 26%
Chuba Hubbard 11.5 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 21% 31%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 10% 68%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 36% 35%
Matthew Golden 9.0 BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% 18% 48%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 16% 58%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 12% 66%
Keenan Allen 11.9 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 11% 66%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.3 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 34% 14%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 20% 9%
Colston Loveland 9.8 BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% 10% 60%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.6 27% 54%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 20% 22%
Evan McPherson 9.5 14% 68%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.4 43% 21%
Patriots D/ST 8.8 18% 47%
Dolphins D/ST 8.7 14% 63%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-10 12:32

Matchup Summary

80.0%

Win Probability

+34.0
Expected Margin
139.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
94.0
Opponent (Proj)
33.0
Margin Std Dev
124.2
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.9 pts | Median: +15.0 pts | Ceiling: +56.6 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 14.0 4.1-27.8 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 15.0 5.1-24.1 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.0 3.6-24.5 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 16% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 24.0 6.3-30.3 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 22.0 6.1-28.0 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 20.0 4.1-25.2 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.8-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.2-18.2 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 14.0 5.2-17.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 17.0 6.5-27.9 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.0 2.4-18.5 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 4.0 0.7-18.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 8.0 5.5-25.3 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 7% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 13.0 3.8-21.9 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luther Burden III WR HIGH 3.0 0.8-17.4 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 42% Luther Burden III
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 6.0 3.5-22.0 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 16.5 6.0-29.8 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 14.2 8.6-37.6 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 6.4 1.5-27.6 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 38% Sean Tucker
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 14.5 5.4-22.7 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 13.3 2.7-29.3 ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 10.3 3.5-24.5 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 23% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 10.0 2.7-17.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Dalton Schultz
Commanders D/ST D/ST HIGH 3.3 0.0-10.3 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 74% Commanders D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 6.7 2.3-14.8 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.4-25.5 ↑15+: 42% | ↓5-: 8% C.J. Stroud
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.7-24.5 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 35% Kenneth Gainwell
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.8-24.4 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 12% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 12.9 5.5-22.0 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 7% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.3-21.6 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.9-20.5 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 25% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE HIGH 9.2 3.5-18.1 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 30% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.4 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.1
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 15.0 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 73% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 25% @ 5.8 17.3
Rams D/ST D/ST 22% @ 17.6 39% @ 9.2 40% @ 4.0 8.9

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.514.0BOOM46.3%33.4%20.4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.813.0MODERATE41.5%40.4%18.1%
Rashee RiceWR17.222.0BOOM33.3%36.7%29.9%
Jordan LoveQB14.817.0MODERATE28.1%50.7%21.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE25.6%44.9%29.5%
Devin SingletaryRB10.74.0BUST16.3%34.2%49.5%
Luther Burden IIIWR8.13.0BUST14.4%43.7%41.9%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.19.0MODERATE14.2%45.3%40.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.914.0MODERATE14.1%48.6%37.3%
Rams D/STD/ST4.25.0BUST13.7%26.0%60.4%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.920.0BOOM11.9%37.0%51.1%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.824.0BOOM11.5%64.0%24.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.28.0BUST11.2%34.9%53.9%
Omarion HamptonRB11.712.0MODERATE11.2%35.5%53.3%
Bucky IrvingRB15.215.0MODERATE10.0%38.7%51.3%
Hunter HenryTE11.06.0BUST9.0%29.7%61.3%

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1633.8 1645.4 -11.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 99.9%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1686.6 1445.6 +241.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W4 73.8%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1601.3 1616.8 -15.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 58.7%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1429.7 1471.9 -42.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 34.0%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 24.2%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1610.5 1537.4 +73.1 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 9.4%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1478.5 1531.2 -52.7 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1471.5 1561.6 -90.1 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1495.1 1646.5 -151.4 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1584.9 1631.2 -46.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.

Injury Concerns

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.2
Our Team MAE
16 players
10.6
Opponent MAE
9 players
25
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 11.6
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.8 24.0 0.0 -24.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 16.1 16.5 0.0 -16.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 15.7 14.5 0.0 -14.5
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 16.7 14.2 0.0 -14.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 16.8 13.3 0.0 -13.3
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.8 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 12.2 10.3 0.0 -10.3
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 8.9 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent K Jake Elliott 8.0 6.7 0.0 -6.7
Opponent RB Sean Tucker 2.9 6.4 0.0 -6.4
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 11.0 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.7 4.0 0.0 -4.0
Opponent D/ST Commanders D/ST 3.1 3.3 0.0 -3.3
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 3.0 0.0 -3.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 13.9 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 24.0 pts
ESPN 20.8 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 30.5 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 25.6 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 12.8 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.0 pts
Median (50th) 17.1 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
33% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.5 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 11.7 pts
90th percentile 24.5 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 17.2 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
46% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
26% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.6 pts
90th percentile 25.0 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 22.1 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 4.0 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.7 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
Luther Burden III distribution
LLM 3.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BOOM
10%
MODERATE
44%
BUST
46%
10th percentile 0.8 pts
Median (50th) 6.5 pts
90th percentile 11.0 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
LLM 14.5 pts
ESPN 15.7 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 12.1 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
6% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
22% BOOM
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
LLM 13.3 pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 14.2 pts
90th percentile 29.2 pts
MC (Historical)
37% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
LLM 14.2 pts
ESPN 16.7 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 8.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 37.7 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Sean Tucker (RB)
Sean Tucker distribution
LLM 6.4 pts
ESPN 2.9 pts
BUST
41%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 1.6 pts
Median (50th) 6.5 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
LLM 10.3 pts
ESPN 12.2 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
25%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 9.6 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
LLM 16.5 pts
ESPN 16.1 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 6.0 pts
Median (50th) 15.7 pts
90th percentile 30.0 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 17.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
31% BOOM
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
LLM 6.7 pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.1 pts
90th percentile 14.7 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
20% BOOM
Commanders D/ST (D/ST)
Commanders D/ST distribution
LLM 3.3 pts
ESPN 3.1 pts
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
25%
BUST
50%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 2.0 pts
90th percentile 10.3 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM